If you walk your dog in the New Forest there is a 99.99% chance it will NOT die of Alabama Rot

This post reposted to http://alabamarot.co.uk/99-99-of-dogs-walked-in-new-forest-will-not-die-of-alabama-rot/

The Forestry Commission website reminds us that:

"Many thousands of dogs are walked in the countryside every day and it is important to remember that only a very small number of dogs have been affected [by Alabama Rot]." (1)

A report by England Marketing for the Forestry Commission in 2005 stated:

"in addition to the 37,600 dogs which regularly walk in the New Forest, it is estimated that there are a further 600,000* dog visits per year." (2) 

*There were 7.5m visitor days to New Forest in 2005 - Tourism South East estimates that 8% bring their dogs, so 600,000 dog visits per year (2)

NB. figures for numbers of visitors to New Forest in 2013/14 are not available.

i.e. 637,600 dogs walked in New Forest in 2005

In two years (December 2012 - December 2014) twenty three dogs died of Alabama Rot in the New Forest (sixteen confirmed (red paws) and seven unconfirmed cases (yellow houses). Six dogs survived Alabama Rot (blue anchors) - see map below. (3)

Between December 2012 - December 2014 twenty three dogs died of Alabama Rot in the New Forest - sixteen confirmed (red paws) and seven unconfirmed cases (yellow houses). Six dogs survived Alabama Rot (blue anchors) (3)

637,600 dogs walked in 2005 in the New Forest. Over a two year period between December 2012 and December 2014 twenty three died of Alabama Rot. From these figures, 1 in 13,860 dogs walked in the New Forest died of Alabama Rot (637,600 / 23 / 2).

As expected, the more dogs walked in an area of the New Forest, the larger number of cases of Alabama Rot. Note: the greatest number of cases of Alabama Rot are in the rectangle between Ringwood, Brockenhurst, Sway and Bransgore (map above).

This correlates with the frequency of dog walkers (map below). (2)

Frequency of dogs walked in the New Forest

Other Assumptions

1) The same number of dogs were walked in 2005 and 2013/2014
2) All dog deaths from Alabama Rot are recorded.

Summary

Between December 2012 and December 2014, fewer than 1 in 13,000 dogs walked in the New Forest, died of Alabama Rot. To put it another way, more than 99.99% of dogs walked in the New Forest did not die of Alabama Rot.

References

(1) Cutaneous and Renal Glomerular Vasculopathy (CRGV or ‘Alabama Rot’), Forestry Commission http://www.forestry.gov.uk/alabamarot (accessed 4th February 2015)
(2) Forestry Commission –Dog Walkers, England Marketing, 2005, http://www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/new-forest-dog-study.pdf/$file/new-forest-dog-study.pdf
(3) Alabama Rot Google Map by Chris Street
https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=zIJgTtl9x6zk.kif7awTR9hAA