In area between Ringwood, Bransgore and Brockenhurst is it more likely for dogs to be confirmed with Alabama Rot?

Reposted to: http://alabamarot.co.uk/in-area-between-ringwood-bransgore-and-brockenhurst-is-it-more-likely-for-dogs-to-be-confirmed-with-alabama-rot/

9 cases (red paws) of dogs with confirmed Alabama Rot in 45.9 km2 area bounded by Ringwood, Bransgore and Brockenhurst

Between December 2012 and December 2014 there have been 46 confirmed cases of Alabama Rot. (1)

Nine confirmed cases (see red paws in map above) of Cutaneous and Renal Glomerular Vasculopathy (CRGV) aka Alabama Rot are in a 45.9km2 (17.7 mile2) area triangle bordered by Ringwood, Bransgore and Brockenhurst. This represents 1 case per 5.9km2 (45.9/9) (1)

Note: In the map above, the four yellow huts are unconfirmed cases of dogs who died from Alabama Rot; the four blue anchors are unconfirmed cases of dogs surviving Alabama Rot.

In England, there appears to be three Alabama Rot cluster areas - areas with 4 or more confirmed cases of Alabama Rot. The three areas are the New Forest, Greater Manchester and Guildford. In these three areas there have been 26 cases covering an area of 593 km2. (1)

There are twenty one cases of dogs with confirmed Alabama Rot outside the three clusters - in the rest of England.  These twenty one cases are spread over an area of 97,070 km2 (97663-593 km2) or 1 case per 4622 km2. (2)

On a case per area basis, confirmed Alabama Rot cases are reported in the 'Ringwood - Bransgore - Brockenhurst' cluster triangle 783 times (ie 4622/5.9 case per km2) more frequently than in the rest of England.

However, this analysis has several weaknesses:
1) It does not take into account the total number of dogs walked in the area or the total number of miles walked. A map of confirmed Alabama Rot cases versus dogs numbers walked in an area, will be posted.

2) It is possible that cases of Alabama Rot are not reported uniformly by vets throughout England - the lead vets, Anderson Moores Veterinary Specialists, are based in Winchester, Hampshire. So vets in New Forest may be reporting a larger proportion of confirmed Alabama Rot cases than elsewhere in UK. A poll of UK vets would establish this.

3) It makes the assumption that clusters do not occur by chance. Further statistical analysis is required.

(1) Alabama Rot UK Graph: https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=zIJgTtl9x6zk.kif7awTR9hAA
(2) http://crgv-alabamarot.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/clusters-of-alabama-rot.html