Clusters of Alabama Rot?

reposted to: http://alabamarot.co.uk/clusters-of-alabama-rot/

Are the 3 'clusters' (see (1) Alabama Rot UK Map) of confirmed cases of Alabama Rot around Greater Manchester, New Forest and Guildford indicative of an Alabama Rot causing environmental factor at a higher concentration relative to other non-cluster areas of England?

There have been 47 confirmed cases (the red paws in the maps below) of Alabama Rot in England between December 2012 and 25th January 2015.

Greater Manchester has a cluster of 6 cases in approx. 122km2 area or 1 case per 21km2 (using the Google map area measurement tool)

Greater Manchester has a cluster of 6 cases in approx. 122km2 area or 1 case per 21 km2

The New Forest has a cluster of 16 cases in approx. 378km2 area or 1 case per 24 km2

The New Forest has a cluster of 16 cases in approx. 378km2 area or 1 case per 24 km2

Guildford has a cluster of 4 cases in approx. 93km2 or 1 case per 23km2.

Guildford has a cluster of 4 cases in approx. 93km2 or 1 case per 23km2.

Adding up all 3 clusters (New Forest, Greater Manchester and Guildford), 26 cases occur in 593 km2 or average 1 case per 23 km2.

Area that bounds all English cases is approx. 97,663 km2.

Area that bounds all English cases is very approx. 97,663 km2.

The 21 cases (47 total less 26 in clusters) not occurring in clusters are spread over an area of  97,070 km2 (97,663-593 km2) or 1 case per 4622 km2.

Therefore dogs walked in the 3 cluster areas (Greater Manchester, New Forest and Guildford) seem to be at x200 (4622/23) greater risk of dying from confirmed Alabama Rot than dogs walked in non-cluster Alabama Rot areas.

But are these 3 clusters statistical flukes? What is likelihood that these clusters could occur by chance?

References
(1) Alabama Rot UK Map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=zIJgTtl9x6zk.kif7awTR9hAA

Half Alabama Rot confirmed cases reported in New Forest, Greater Manchester, Guildford

Reposted to http://alabamarot.co.uk/half-of-crgv-cases-are-in-new-forest-greater-manchester-or-guildford/

There have been forty six confirmed cases of Alabama Rot in dogs in England between December 2012 to December 2014 (a further one case was in Northern Ireland):

Twenty five cases - more than half of all cases (54% of all confirmed cases) are in three cluster regions: the New Forest - sixteen cases (34%), Greater Manchester - five cases (11%) and Guildford, Surrey - four cases (9%). (Street 2014c)

A further twenty one cases (46%) were reported in the rest of England.

Further analysis by a statistician is required to determine whether these clusters occur by chance.

Reference

STREET, C.G., 30th December 2014, 2014c-last update, UK map of Alabama Rot (CRGV) cases in dogs since 2012. Available: https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=zIJgTtl9x6zk.kif7awTR9hAA

1 in 3 dogs with confirmed Alabama Rot reported on Forestry Commission land

17 (37%) of the 46 confirmed cases of dogs confirmed with Alabama Rot were reported on the Forestry Commission's Public Forest Estate in England. 16 cases were in the New Forest in Hampshire and 1 case in Salcey Forest in Northamptonshire.(1)

16 locations in green include cases found on the Forestry Commission’s Public Forest Estate: 5 cases were confirmed between December 2012 and May 2013; 10 cases in the New Forest; 1 case in Salcey Forest were confirmed between December 2013 and July 22nd 2014(2); a further 1 case was confirmed in Deerleap, New Forest in December 2014.(1) The 16 cases are also shown by village in the New Forest & Northamptonshire between December 2012 and July 22nd 2014.(3)

References

(1) https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=zIJgTtl9x6zk.kif7awTR9hAA (accessed 24th January 2015)
(2) https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9oYzJ_dRvVEWDEyVUY1bFpMWTg/view?usp=sharing (accessed 24th January 2015)
(3) https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9oYzJ_dRvVEXzlyRVdldERkUzg/view?usp=sharing (accessed 24th January 2015)

Eculizumab manufacturer to sponsor trials in CRGV dogs?

I spoke with David Walker @ Anderson Moores Veterinary Specialists (AMVS) today.

I will take forward my idea to contact the Eculizumab manufacturer Alexion Pharma UK with the objective of getting funding for an Eculizumab trial in dogs.

If Alexion show interest I will pass contact details onto AMVS.

Survival Rates

I spoke with David Walker @ Anderson Moores Veterinary Specialists (AMVS) today. 

Only 7 dogs in UK between November 2012 and December 2014 have survived CRGV. Survival of CRGV dogs treated at AMVS and Royal Veterinary College (RVC) is 37% according to David Walker (AMVS) today. AMVS & RVC have saved 7 dogs out of 19 dogs treated for CRGV.  

For dogs treated at vets, survival rates are very much lower than at AMVS/RVC. This suggests to me that vets should be replicating the intensive management procedures of AMVS and the RVC or sending dogs diagnosed with CRGV to AMVS/RVC, without delay.